IRAN SCENARIO …It is spring of 2015.
As a majority of Middle East analysts predicted,
Iran was able to develop nuclear weapons. And by spring of 2015 Iran had
somewhere between 5 and 10 operational weapons. {Delivery of these weapons was
never a problem. Aircraft delivery had been solved in 1945. Trucks and ships
were always possible. Missile range had been adequate since 2012. Warhead
development may have been completed undetected. Iran and Hezbollah had violated
Israel's territory with drones.}
At that point, bombing Iran would be fruitless
since it would not destroy Iran's nuclear capability, but would invite
retaliation.
Whether
through concern about retaliation (assured mutual destruction theory) or
rational calculations“ or for some other reason, Iran had not struck Israel.
Regime change which had been a US and Western
objective now appeared to be happening and the ruling Iranian regime appeared
isolated and likely to be overthrown.
The question on everybody's mind became: “ If the
Iranian regime is in danger of being overthrown, will they use their nuclear weapons against Israel?"
The temptation had always been there, but now the
logic of such a strike—a jihadist Hail Mary—might become persuasive.
If the
mullahs struck Israel would Israel strike back with its own nuclear weapons:?
… Or would the United States and the
rest of the world say to Israel: “Whom would you be killing, except millions of Iranians also
struggling to topple the regime? " [And would this statement be correct?]
And assume the regime, at its dying breath,
managed at least to fulfill its core ambition to destroy the Jewish state:
Would it not be a worthy capstone for the Islamic Republic? Suicide is a sin,
but this would be an act of martyrdom on a world-historical scale.
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