Tuesday, December 17, 2013

IRAN SCENARIO …It is spring of 2015.And assume the regime, at its dying breath, managed at least to fulfill its core ambition to destroy the Jewish state: Would it not be a worthy capstone for the Islamic Republic? Suicide is a sin, but this would be an act of martyrdom on a world-historical scale.


IRAN SCENARIO …It is spring of 2015.
As a majority of Middle East analysts predicted, Iran was able to develop nuclear weapons. And by spring of 2015 Iran had somewhere between 5 and 10 operational weapons. {Delivery of these weapons was never a problem. Aircraft delivery had been solved in 1945. Trucks and ships were always possible. Missile range had been adequate since 2012. Warhead development may have been completed undetected. Iran and Hezbollah had violated Israel's territory with drones.}
At that point, bombing Iran would be fruitless since it would not destroy Iran's nuclear capability, but would invite retaliation.
 Whether through concern about retaliation (assured mutual destruction theory) or rational calculations“ or for some other reason, Iran had not struck Israel.
Regime change which had been a US and Western objective now appeared to be happening and the ruling Iranian regime appeared isolated and likely to be overthrown.
The question on everybody's mind became: “ If the Iranian regime is in danger of being overthrown,  will they use their nuclear weapons  against Israel?"
The temptation had always been there, but now the logic of such a strike—a jihadist Hail Mary—might become persuasive.
 If the mullahs struck Israel would Israel strike back with its own nuclear weapons:? …    Or would the United States and the rest of the world say to Israel: “Whom would you  be killing, except millions of Iranians also struggling to topple the regime? " [And would this statement be correct?]
And assume the regime, at its dying breath, managed at least to fulfill its core ambition to destroy the Jewish state: Would it not be a worthy capstone for the Islamic Republic? Suicide is a sin, but this would be an act of martyrdom on a world-historical scale.

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