***** EXCERPT(2d half of article)******
Here's a list of reasons for the Israeli government to worry about Kerry (a list compiled with the help of Washington operatives, congressional sources and diplomatic veterans in recent days):
"If there's going to be trouble, it will be Kerry, not Hagel", one Washington veteran told me. After the (quiet and successful) Obama trip is over, the time for Kerry to step in will arrive. Israel will have a new government, presumably one which is more concerned about domestic affairs than about the peace process, and the Kerry team will have four full years to nudge it - and the Palestinians - towards making progress. One problem for him might be the different timetable that Israel envisions for making any progress. As Defense Minister Barak stressed at his AIPAC speech earlier this week, Israel doesn't really believe in final status negotiations at this point in time. Incremental steps are the goal, but no one is going to get a Nobel Prize for 'incrementalism'. Besides, when Washington gets "incremental" from Bibi, it hears 'delay', 'abstraction', 'never'.
Kerry had a surprise meeting with Palestinian President Abbas last week. This was the beginning of his long journey in the treacherous waters of Israeli-Palestinian peace making, but surely not the end. If Israel will have a government based on settler-friendly Habait Hayehudi, though, it's hard to see how any concessions on settlements could be offered to Kerry. If Netanyahu decides to send Habait Hayehudi to the opposition and base his coalition on centrist Yesh Atid and the Haredi parties - ready for revenge and currently less sympathetic towards the settlements – his government will quickly face political instability.
Of course, many things can still save Netanyahu and Israel (and the Palestinians) from Kerry's overly ambitious activism: it could be Iran, Syria, or Dennis Rodman for that matter - other events that will keep him too busy to be investing in a cause that deluded so many before him. Or he can be saved by doing the un-Kerry thing: going small, modest, forgetting about big breakthroughs and aiming low. Incremental steps for Israel and the Palestinians, incremental steps for the Secretary.
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Thursday, March 7, 2013
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