Thursday, August 13, 2015

TO TRULY EVALUATE THE JCPOA --FOCUS ON IT'S DANGERS TO THE UNITED STATES (and read the conditional small print reservations of one it's strongest "supporters".

he discussion of the JCPOA  does not focus on the dangers that the JCPOAdirectly creates for the United States such as Russian renewed domination of Eastern Europe (Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, etc.) and the increasing penetration of Iran in central and South America. Also, that its supporters for the most part condition that support on a robust US presence in the Middle East.


 TO TRULY EVALUATE THE JCPOA --FOCUS ON IT'S DANGERS TO THE UNITED STATES (and read the conditional small print reservations of one it's strongest "supporters"....SUPPORT ONLY, IF   the United States resists its natural inclination to try to use the JCPOA as yet another excuse to walk away." )



RUSSIA ( PUTIN ) AND MAJ. GEN. GHASEM SOLEIMANI, THE COMMANDER OF IRAN'S QUDS FORCE, ARE THE IMMEDIATE AND LONG-RANGE BIG WINNERS FROM THIS DEAL.

1.     THE IRANIAN THREAT IS DIRECTED PRIMARILY  AGAINST THE UNITED STATES,,THE GREAT SATAN.

To Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, his circle of ruling mullahs and the entire command structure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, THE UNITED STATES IS THE GREAT SATAN and destroying Israel is, to them , just an added bonus AND a religious obligation.

 This deal , by providing substantial additional income to Iran, materially assures the strength and permanence of the hold of the existing government over the Iranian population: 

a)    by increasing the resources that can be  allocated to the internal security apparatus; 

b)    by allowing for  substantial increases in expenditures for infrastructure, economic development, health etc. {This  will reduce restlessness of the younger generation whose discontent is much more economic than political. The implicit deal has been made that 'we will not crack down upon you for transgressions ( within bounds)that you commit in private as long as your resistance is not public.']

c)     removes an existing  current source of tension concerning financial allocations and national priorities between the ruling clerics and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps by substantially increasing the “terror budget for IRGC's direct operations  in Iraq and through proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Sinai, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain,  Saudi Arabia, etc. 

This will also  enable  Iran to increase it's already extensive penetration in Central and South America. {See the Joint Subcommittee Hearing: Iran and Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere; Subcommittee on the Middle East and North AfricaSubcommittee on the Western Hemisphere Mar 18, 2015   http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/joint-subcommittee-hearing-iran-and-hezbollah-western-hemisphere }

 2.   RUSSIA AND PUTIN ARE THE IMMEDIATE AND LONG-RANGE BIG WINNERS FROM THIS DEAL. 

  This deal directly and materially helps Russia's unchecked aggression in its continuing campaign to  dominate Eastern Europe [Ukraine, Poland, Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania....See Newsweek: http://www.newsweek.com/russias-european-neighbors-rattled-putins-expansionism-334616 }


This deal places the US  main land at direct risk  of ICBM. attack. 

  Russia has announced that it will sell Iran ICBM technology. Iran does not need ICBMs to attack Israel. ICBMs in the hands of Iran with a nuclear weapon are a threat to the entire East Coast of the United States. They still shout “death to America" in Iran. Several days ago Pres. Rouhani led a parade through the streets of Tehran whose theme was very vocal: “death to America". 

Russia claims that it plans to upgrade that portion of its own  IBM force, both qualitatively and quantitatively , that is aimed at the United States. Money coming from weapons and other sales to Iran will help finance this enhancement of Russian capability which will improve Russia's  position as they announced in terms of their assaults against Ukraine, and in their announced aggravations against  Poland and Latvia. 

Russia has also announced that they will sell Iran short-range attack missiles which place US naval forces in danger and give Iran a lock control over the essential waterways {Straits of Hormuz;  Bab el- Mandeb} which control  approximately 50% of all of the petroleum that is shipped in the world.

Russia has also announced that they will sell advanced air defense missiles and communications to Iran which would make any nuclear/missile force impregnable to attack. 

 Several days after the deal was announced, Maj. Gen. Ghasem Soleimani, the commander of iran's Quds force,  visited Moscow and met with president Vladimir Putin.The  reported purpose of this meeting was for Russia and Iran to discuss the division of the Middle East in a way that would serve their various clients in the region (among  them, Assad ) and check the joint enemies the Islamic state). It was also speculated that they discussed how to marginalize the role of the United States in the region. As a means to both ends will continue to serve as Assad's protector, all the while providing weapons to Iran, to the Syrian regime and also possibly to Hezbollah.

3.     RESERVATIONS OF ONE IT'S STRONGEST "SUPPORTERS"

....SUPPORT ONLY,IF   the United States resists its natural inclination to try to use the JCPOA as yet another excuse to walk away." )

 Kenneth M. Pollack, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, before the Committee on Foreign Relations The United States Senate, August 5, 2015

 Pollack stated that every U.S. ally in the region fears that “the United States plans to use the [Iran deal] to justify further disengagement from the region,” by treating the deal as a “get out of the Middle East Free Card.

*     Across the board in private, Gulf officials damn the Administration for its weak response to Iran…. If the United States is not there to reassure the Gulf states and deter Iran, things could get very ugly……

**     Although the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is hardly a perfect deal, it is an accomplishment of sorts. It has the potential to make the Middle East a modestly safer place in the future—certainly for 10-15 years, and possibly for longer.But that will only happen if the United States resists its natural inclination to try to use the JCPOA as yet another excuse to walk away. Perhaps paradoxically to an American mind, the only way that the JCPOA is likely to make the Middle East a better place rather than a worse one is if the United States uses it to remain involved in the region. To reassure our allies and rein in their fearful aggressiveness. To deter the Iranians and demonstrate to them that we will not allow a nuclear agreement to become a cover for their own aggression. If we do that, then I believe that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action could be an important aspect of a wider, more engaged American policy toward the Middle East. BUT WITHOUT A WIDER, MORE ENGAGED AMERICAN POLICY TOWARD THE REGION, NEITHER THE JCPOA NOR EVEN AN UNATTAINABLE "PERFECT" AGREEMENT WITH IRAN WILL AMOUNT TO MORE THAN FODDER FOR THE NOBEL PRIZE COMMITTEE.