Saturday, August 1, 2015

THE ACTUAL IRAN (RUSSIA)-US (p5+1) DEAL...WINNERS AND LOSERS

1.     WHAT IS THE IRANIAN GAME? WHAT IS THE IRANIAN GAME PLAN?

The Iranian game  is  simple: to achieve regional domination and to be a major player on the world scene. {See note *,below.}

An often repeated statement is that: "The Iranian's play chess while the United States plays checkers”.

 It is worse. While the Obama administration's game plan appears to be limited to  to focusing America's  attention on  Israel (standing in the way of world peace; attempting to thwart US diplomatic initiatives, etc.) and on the  ever changing minutia  of the "agreement" { number of centrifuges; percentage of enrichment; who actually takes the soil and air samples at various sites,;etc. }   the Iranian game plan is to secure a 100% certain path to their regional and international aspirations and and  at the same time retain their ability to choose whether they want to become a nuclear power (or just benefit from the status of being a nuclear capable nation.}

In addition , Iran is  now using the leverage that has obtained to generate   an international campaign seeking the dismantlement of the Israeli nuclear deterrent. [   "Iran has signed a historic nuclear deal – now it’s Israel’s turn"by Javad Zarif ,The Guardian, 7-3-15         http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/31/iran-nuclear-deal-israel-vienna-treaty-middle-east-wmd}

{Note *   Many defenders of the Iranian regime claim that Iran has no use for nuclear weapons and does not want nuclear weapons. What Iran has done through these negotiations with the Obama administration is to  trade its “agreement” to temporarily slow down its progress on what it claims is a nonexistent program, for a substantial  nearly immediate increase, in resources and recognition of Iran's legal  ability to walk away from any “agreement” at any time   of its choosing  by violating any terms of the agreement.}




2.     THE IRANIAN THREAT IS DIRECTED PRIMARILY  AGAINST THE UNITED STATES,,THE GREAT SATAN.  To Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, his circle of ruling mullahs and the entire command structure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, destroying Israel is, to them , just an added bonus AND a religious obligation.

 This deal , by providing substantial additional income to Iran, materially assures the strength and permanence of the hold of the existing government over the Iranian population: 

a)    by increasing the resources that can be  allocated to the internal security apparatus; 

b)    by allowing for  substantial increases in expenditures for infrastructure, economic development, health etc. {This  will reduce restlessness of the younger generation whose discontent is much more economic than political. The implicit deal has been made that 'we will not crack down upon you for transgressions ( within bounds)that you commit in private as long as  your resistance is not public.']

c)     removes an existing  current source of tension concerning financial allocations and national priorities between the ruling clerics and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps by substantially increasing the “terror budget”. This increases the IRGC's operational abilities  in Iraq and through proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Sinai, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain,  Saudi Arabia, etc. This will also increase Iran's already extensive penetration in Central and South America. {Joint Subcommittee Hearing: Iran and Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere; Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere Mar 18, 2015   http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/joint-subcommittee-hearing-iran-and-hezbollah-western-hemisphere }

3.      INCONVENIENT FACTS FOR THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

 a.  In this  part of the world true negotiations only  begin after the agreement is signed.  How many more concessions will  be demanded for what  will never be a final settlement?

b. The Iranian  Parliament does not vote on this agreement until after the U.S. Congress votes.Will the US be called back to sweeten the pot?

 c. The Iranians have announced that they will be governed by the supreme leader's interpretation of each clause.  Can it be any clearer that they will interpret the agreement to their satisfaction?

d. Iran will be  actually doing the ground monitoring for the UN inspectors/ observers at all of  the current known sites.  The Iranians  will provide their readings as the “situation on the ground” from which the UN inspectors  will draw their conclusions

e All sides agree that Iran will likely cheat around the margins which they will argue are ambiguous. This allows a creeping redefinition of the agreement.

 f.. If Iran is caught cheating and sanctions are in any way "snapped back” this  agreement gives Iran the right to withdraw their compliance  from all their obligations that  they have undertaken.  Thus,  the incentive  is for  Iran  to strictly observe the provisions of this agreement  until the Iranian economy is moving, then to cheat around the edges, and then to walk away from the entire agreement if and when they want to (completely based on their desires and their timetable).




4.     PRES. OBAMA  IGNORED  THE ADVICE OF THE US MILITARY WHO HAVE BEEN VERY VOCAL IN EXPRESSING THEIR CONCERN AND OPPOSITION TO THIS AGREEMENT. 

For example see the congressional testimonies of both the  outgoing  and the incoming chiefs of the joint Chiefs:

 a) These military purchases from China and Russia are just the 1st wave of a major upgrade of Iran's offensive and defensive capabilities. Also, these purchases provide both China and Russia with additional  financial resources ( purchase dollars +increased fleet sizes) which  enable  both China and Russia  to  invest in upgrades which will  directly benefit the Chinese and Russian military forces. 

b) Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford, President Obama's nominee to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff:  "Iran directly linked to deaths of  more than 500 U.S. troops in Iraq, Afghanistan."

 And c)  The   Iran Task Force, a  bi-partisan team made up of leading military, national security, and policy experts, has been a leading voice about the danger that this bad deal will allow Iran to become a nuclear state. See:




5. RUSSIA AND PUTIN ARE THE IMMEDIATE AND LONG-RANGE BIG WINNERS FROM THIS DEAL. 

   This deal directly and materially helps Russia's unchecked aggression in its continuing campaign to  dominate Eastern Europe [  http://www.newsweek.com/russias-european-neighbors-rattled-putins-expansionism-334616…..Ukraine, Poland, Georgia,  and Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania].

This deal places the US  main land at direct risk  of ICBM. attack. 

 a)  Russia has also announced that it will upgrade that portion of its own  IBM force both qualitatively and quantitatively that is aimed at the United States. And b)  Iran does not need ICBMs to attack Israel. ICBMs in the hands of Iran with a nuclear weapon are a threat to the entire East Coast of the United States

Russia has announced that it will sell Iran ICBM technology. Iran does not need ICBMs to attack Israel. ICBMs in the hands of Iran with a nuclear weapon are a threat to the entire East Coast of the United States. They still shout “death to America” in Iran. Several days ago Pres. Rouhani led a parade through the streets of Tehran whose theme was very vocal: “death to America”. 

Russia claims that it plans to upgrade that portion of its own  IBM force, both qualitatively and quantitatively , that is aimed at the United States. Money coming from weapons and other sales to Iran will help finance this enhancement of Russian capability which will improve Russia's  position as they announced in terms of their assaults against Ukraine, and in their announced aggravations against  Poland and Latvia. 

Russia has also announced that they will sell Iran short-range attack missiles which place US naval forces in danger and give Iran a lock control over the essential waterways {Straits of Hormuz;  Bab el- Mandeb} which control  approximately 50% of all of the petroleum that is shipped in the world.

Russia has also announced that they will sell advanced air defense missiles and communications to Iran which would make any nuclear/missile force impregnable to attack.   

6.     ANOTHER MAJOR CONCERN IS THAT IRAN WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED RESOURCES TO DEVOTE TO TERROR AND PENETRATION OPERATIONS WHICH DIRECTLY THREATEN AMERICAN LIVES AND AMERICAN INTERESTS..... THE DEAL PERMITS THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS TO EXPAND THEIR ALREADY CONSIDERABLE PENETRATION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.


There are no restrictions on the money that will be released to Iran. There is only "hope"that it will be spent for internal economic  and social improvements. 

Currently Iran is the major funder of international terrorism. They are active in South America and Central America. They are  active in Jordan, Yemen, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, etc.

 Since April 2015 the Obama administration has released $700 million per month to Iran. Unfortunately, a substantial percentage of these released funds have gone to fund internal security operations within Iran and to finance increased operations of the IRGC throughout the world.  According to the sworn congressional testimony of Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford, President Obama's nominee to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff:  "Iran  is directly linked to deaths of  more than 500 U.S. troops in Iraq, Afghanistan."

    According to various administration spokespersons' interpretations of, this agreement,It:

         a. has already  taken  those who have been found guilty of murdering Americans and have been penalized by US courts completely off the hook and has granted them  complete freedom from these judgments and verdicts.  


         b.  obligates  the US  to assist and train Iran in preventing any sabotage against its  nuclear facilities. This obligates the US to protect the Iranian nuclear and missile programs from cyber attack and may require the US to share cyber protection technology with the Iranians.

         c.  states that the US may not impose any new sanctions on Iran for any other reasons.  So if next year Iran's terrorists were to attack a US embassy , the US would not be allowed to sanction Iran for such aggression{. If you think this is far-fetched consider the attack by Iran on the Jewish center in Argentina and the current lack of follow-up by the Argentine government. Also, it is public record that the US did not report Iranian transgressions and violations of the current agreement to the UN in order not to jeopardize “progress” on the negotiations with Iran. Further, the US refused to accept the evidence that the reactor under construction in Syria which had been financed by Iran and was utilizing North Korean technology was in fact a nuclear reactor until after Israel destroyed it and the exact nature of the installation could no longer be denied by US intelligence/State Department.}