Monday, August 10, 2015

 RUSSIA ( PUTIN ) AND MAJ. GEN. GHASEM SOLEIMANI, THE COMMANDER OF IRAN'S QUDS FORCE, ARE THE IMMEDIATE AND LONG-RANGE BIG WINNERS FROM THIS DEAL.



THE IRANIAN GAME…. THE IRANIAN GAME PLAN



The Iranian game  is  simple: to achieve regional domination and to be a major player on the world scene. the Iranian game plan is to secure a 100% certain path to their regional and international aspirations and and  at the same time retain their ability to choose whether they want to become a nuclear power (or just benefit from the status of being a nuclear capable nation.}

What Iran has done through these negotiations with the Obama administration is to  trade its “agreement” to temporarily slow down its progress on what it claims is a nonexistent program, for a substantial  nearly immediate increase, in resources and recognition of Iran's legal  ability to walk away from any “agreement” at any time   of its choosing  by violating any terms of the agreement.}

In addition , Iran is  now using the leverage that has obtained to generate   an international campaign seeking the dismantlement of the Israeli nuclear deterrent. [ See:  "Iran has signed a historic nuclear deal– now it’s Israel’s turn"by Javad Zarif ,The Guardian, 7-3-15  } 

 I have placed the term “agreement ” in quotation marks since in this  part of the world true negotiations only begin after the agreement is signed.and many more concessions will  be demanded, on the path toward what will never be a final settlement. Further,the Iranians have announced that they will be governed by the supreme leader's interpretation of each clause.  Can it be any clearer that they will interpret the agreement to their satisfaction?

Many observers believe  that Iran will likely cheat around the margins which tIran  will argue are ambiguous. This allows a creeping redefinition of the agreement.

  If Iran is caught cheating and sanctions are in any way "snapped back” this  agreement gives Iran the right to withdraw  their compliance  from all their obligations that  they have undertaken.  Thus,  the incentive  is for  Iran  to strictly observe the provisions of this agreement  until the Iranian economy is moving, then to cheat around the edges, and then to walk away from the entire agreement if and when they want to (completely based on their desires and their timetable).

THE IRANIAN THREAT IS DIRECTED PRIMARILY  AGAINST THE UNITED STATES,,THE GREAT SATAN.

To Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, his circle of ruling mullahs and the entire command structure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, destroying Israel is, to them , just an added bonus AND a religious obligation.

 This deal , by providing substantial additional income to Iran, materially assures the strength and permanence of the hold of the existing government over the Iranian population: 

a)    by increasing the resources that can be  allocated to the internal security apparatus; 

b)    by allowing for  substantial increases in expenditures for infrastructure, economic development, health etc. {This  will reduce restlessness of the younger generation whose discontent is much more economic than political. The implicit deal has been made that 'we will not crack down upon you for transgressions ( within bounds)that you commit in private as long as your resistance is not public.']

c)     removes an existing  current source of tension concerning financial allocations and national priorities between the ruling clerics and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps by substantially increasing the “terror budget”.

 This increases the IRGC's operational abilities  in Iraq and through proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Sinai, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain,  Saudi Arabia, etc. 

This will also increase Iran's already extensive penetration in Central and South America. In an {Joint Subcommittee Hearing: Iran and Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere; Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere Mar 18, 2015   http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/joint-subcommittee-hearing-iran-and-hezbollah-western-hemisphere }

    RUSSIA AND PUTIN ARE THE IMMEDIATE AND LONG-RANGE BIG WINNERS FROM THIS DEAL. 

  This deal directly and materially helps Russia's unchecked aggression in its continuing campaign to  dominate Eastern Europe [Ukraine, Poland, Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania....See Newsweek: http://www.newsweek.com/russias-european-neighbors-rattled-putins-expansionism-334616 }


This deal places the US  main land at direct risk  of ICBM. attack. 

  Russia has announced that it will sell Iran ICBM technology. Iran does not need ICBMs to attack Israel. ICBMs in the hands of Iran with a nuclear weapon are a threat to the entire East Coast of the United States. They still shout “death to America" in Iran. Several days ago Pres. Rouhani led a parade through the streets of Tehran whose theme was very vocal: “death to America". 

Russia claims that it plans to upgrade that portion of its own  IBM force, both qualitatively and quantitatively , that is aimed at the United States. Money coming from weapons and other sales to Iran will help finance this enhancement of Russian capability which will improve Russia's  position as they announced in terms of their assaults against Ukraine, and in their announced aggravations against  Poland and Latvia. 

Russia has also announced that they will sell Iran short-range attack missiles which place US naval forces in danger and give Iran a lock control over the essential waterways {Straits of Hormuz;  Bab el- Mandeb} which control  approximately 50% of all of the petroleum that is shipped in the world.

Russia has also announced that they will sell advanced air defense missiles and communications to Iran which would make any nuclear/missile force impregnable to attack. 

 Several days after the deal was announced, Maj. Gen. Ghasem Soleimani, the commander of iran's Quds force,  visited Moscow and met with president Vladimir Putin.The  reported purpose of this meeting was for Russia and Iran to discuss the division of the Middle East in a way that would serve their various clients in the region (among  them, Assad ) and check the joint enemies the Islamic state). It was also speculated that they discussed how to marginalize the role of the United States in the region. As a means to both ends will continue to serve as Assad's protector, all the while providing weapons to Iran, to the Syrian regime and also possibly to Hezbollah.


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