Sunday, July 19, 2015

Evaluating the negotiated Iranian-P5 +1 deal
This evaluation represents the direct concerns to US security interests expressed in the prepared testimonies  of Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter; current chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff  Gen. Martin Dempsey  and Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford, President Obama's nominee to be the next  chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 

 Direct threats to US interests  included  compromise of US cyber security; the feasibility of Iranian ICBM/nuclear attacks on the East Coast of the United States; the danger to US naval vessels and the inability the US Navy  to keep open international waterways based on the improvement of Iranian missiles; the increased ability due to increased resources of the Russians to threaten the European Union and Eastern European countries; the ability of Iran to further dominate Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and to destabilize Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc.

This draft is being circulated for review and comment….Itis subject to revision and extension. 


WHAT WE GET:
-       Iran reduces by about half the number of centrifuges actively enriching uranium{ none will be destroyed; research on advanced centrifuges will be permitted to continue}

-     Iran reduces its stockpile of enriched uranium from about five tons to 300 kilograms

-       Iran repurposes its heavy water reactor in Arak so it does not produce plutonium

-       An unspecified increase in inspections by the IAEA{ US inspectors  will not be allowed to enter Iranian facilities ; military facilities  will be off-limits to inspection; in case of dispute, resolution is through several committees, on each of which Iran is represented –––24 day clock only starts running after a final approval by all committees is obtained.}

WHAT IRAN GETS:

Sanctions relief:
-       Almost every type of U.S., EU, and UN sanctions are lifted

-       Repeal of six UN Security Council resolutions declaring the Iranian nuclear program illegal.

-       Top IRGC and Quds Force terrorists removed from the sanctions list, including Qassem Suleimani, leader of Iran’s campaign against U.S. soldiers in Iraq, and Ahmad Vahidi, mastermind of the 1994 Jewish community center bombing in Argentina that killed 85 people

-       The removal from the sanctions list of approximately 800 people and legal entities, including 23 out of 24 Iranian banks

-       $100 to $150 billion to be unfrozen and given to Iran with no restrictions on its use to purchase arms and fund terrorism, including funding for Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Assad regime in Syria {  Supreme Leader, Sayyid Ali Khamenei ,in order to firmly cement his control of the situation ,will most likely allocate much of the increased revenue to internal economic development. --However, even a small percentage of these additional resources being devoted to international terrorism will provide an extensive increase in the capability of Iran to attain its regional aspirations.--Ali Khamenei  has promised significant increased resources to all of the agencies involved in internal security. He is also pledged additional resources to the Revolutionary Guard Corps for their operations in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, etc. in addition, the following specific pledges have been made: Iran  has pledged to provide Hezbollah with  guidance systems for their 100,000 missiles aimed at Israel.  Irani  has  pledged to to fund the re- building of the terror tunnels against Israel.   Iran has pledged to replenish all of the missiles that Hamas fired against Israel.}


Nuclear program:
-       Iran keeps every one of its nuclear centrifuges

-       Iran keeps its entire physical nuclear infrastructure, including the enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz and the nuclear reactor at Bushehr

-       Iran permitted to continue research and development on all of its advanced centrifuge designs, reducing nuclear breakout time at the end of the deal to weeks

-       Iran permitted to transition its allowed enrichment of uranium from older centrifuge designs to advanced designs

-       No “anywhere, anytime” inspections. Iran can delay inspection of any site for at least 24 days

-       No requirement that Iran fully disclose past nuclear weapons research and development (known as the PMD issue)

-       The P5+1 western powers pledge to collaborate with Iran on nuclear technology   [also on the technology  of countering cyber attacks against Irans' nuclear, missile and other weapons programs]




-       Restrictions on enrichment – part of the “sunset” of the deal – are lifted after eight years


-       If Iran is thought to have violated the deal, in order to “snap back” sanctions a dispute resolution process must be undertaken that can last two and a half months, after which the matter can be referred to the UN Security Council.

 At the UNSC, the re-imposition of sanctions can be vetoed by Russia, which stands togain billions of dollars from arms sales to a non-sanctioned Iran. [Russia has announced that it intends to sell Iran advanced ICBM technology  to Iran which will enable Iran's missiles to threaten Washington, New York, Boston and the entire US East Coast; and  provide resources to Russia who has  announced they intend to upgrade their ICBM programs, both qualitatively and quantitatively. to improve their ability  to confront the United States in Russia's current struggle in Ukraine and in is expected future struggles  in Eastern Europe. Both Russia and Iran announced  the intention of Russia to sell Iran the latest in a missile air  defense systems s which would make the Iranian nuclear/missile force nearly invulnerable to any sort of aircraft and/or missile attack.}

CONCESSIONS UNRELATED TO NUCLEAR PROGRAM:  

-       Ballistic missile embargo... lifted after eight years
-       Conventional arms embargo …lifted  after five years

-       Iran keeps U.S. hostages