Sunday, June 29, 2014

FEAR IRAN, NOT ISIS …The United States needs to be less worried about ISIS and more about Iran. 

 ( Ideas from Boaz Bismuth  and others- 6-30-14)

The Middle East is changing. The concept of the Arab state is crumbling, and something else will rise in its place. The Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916, which gave birth to the Middle East as we have known it, has come to its final station. Something new will be born out of the churning mayhem. 
Terrorism is today an important element of our Middle East, but it (still) does not have the power to fill the vacuum that has been created. Jihadist terrorism can do damage, but it cannot lead.
Jordan is still far from falling into the hands of the extremist Sunni group, comprising 10,000 members, which recent reports have warned could happen. .
Officials in the Hashemite Kingdom are concerned. However, the Jordanians can  depend on their small but disciplined and trained army and their effective air force, which can inflict severe damage on the Sunni terrorist group. They can also count on the loyalty of the local population to the kingdom on both sides of the two main border crossings with Iraq..
The United States needs to be less worried about ISIS and more about Iran. The success of the Sunni organization in western Iraq is a direct result of the changes in the region, and of the fact that Iraq and Syria do not have strong leaders like they once had, who could impose order in their domains. 
 The Iranian nuclear race should still  be the US's main concern. However,suddenly  some  in Washington perceive Sunni terror as being more dangerous than a Shiite nuclear bomb and are loudly advocating  that  Iran be partnered with as a stabilizing force.
This is precisely the change the West needs to be wary about….. Or the West will enable the Iranians to achieve  their major goals: successful completion of their nuclear development/weapons delivery program; domination of the world's petroleum delivery sea channels and political  domination of the  enter Middle East.