Monday, November 25, 2013

FARS NEWS AGENCY'S ACCOUNT, VERBATIM, OF THE GENEVA DEAL VS THE THE US VERSION (INTENDED FOR US DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION){ From:Rouhani’s Iran Schooling West on Aggressive Diplomacy by Yori Yanover Published: November 24th, 2013}

To understand how flawed is the deal signed on Saturday November 23, 2013 in Geneva between the world powers and Iran review the Iranian version. Because the outcome of this deal will be decided in Tehran, not in Washington DC.

Here's the Fars news agency's account, verbatim, of the Geneva deal:

"Iran and the Group signed a four-page agreement after five days of difficult and intensive negotiations and more than a decade-long nuclear standoff.

"One of the pages of the agreement signed in Geneva deals with the easing and removal of the US-led western sanctions imposed against Iran.

"According to the deal, no further sanctions will be imposed against Iran.

"Oil embargoes on the country will be halted. Iran’s crude sales will be maintained at the current level and Iran’s oil revenues will also be released.

"Sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical sector will be completely removed and the sanctions on the country’s auto industry will also be lifted.

"Sanctions on exports of gold and precious stones and metals, as well as the ban on the insurance of oil cargoes will be fully lifted.

"Iran’s right to enrichment has been recognized in two places of the document.

"According to the agreement, the structure of Iran’s nuclear program will be fully preserved. There is no turning back in Iran's uranium enrichment activities.

"Fordo and Natanz (nuclear sites) will also continue operation.

"In return, Iran will reciprocate with a series of confidence-building measures.

"Iran as a confidence-building measure will not further expand its activities in Arak, Natanz and Fordo in the next six months, but (uranium) enrichment below five percent and production of the relevant enriched material in Fordo and Natanz will continue as before.

"Iran will also continue its research and development in its nuclear program.

"According to the agreement, the 20 percent enrichment will not continue in the next six months since Iran does not need any more 20-percent enrichment. All the enriched uranium will remain inside Iran and no material will be taken out from the country."

 To summarize: No more oil embargo. No more sanctions. Iran’s right to enrichment has been recognized.

 The semi-official Iranian news agency  is definitely saying it like it is.

Now the the US version (intended for US domestic consumption) most of which was delivered by President Obama yesterday, and are collected in a White House  " fact sheet."

According to the Administration, the deal "halts the progress of Iran's nuclear program and rolls it back in key respects… The initial, six month step includes significant limits on Iran's nuclear program and begins to address our most urgent concerns including Iran's enrichment capabilities; its existing stockpiles of enriched uranium; the number and capabilities of its centrifuges; and its ability to produce weapons-grade plutonium using the Arak reactor."

Except the Iran version says nothing about rolling back anything. It also celebrates the fact that the 20% enriched uranium stays in the country, and that the deal recognizes Iran's right to enrich in the future. So, who's lying?

The White House says: "The concessions Iran has committed to make as part of this first step will also provide us with increased transparency and intrusive monitoring of its nuclear program. In the past, the concern has been expressed that Iran will use negotiations to buy time to advance their program. Taken together, these first step measures will help prevent Iran from using the cover of negotiations to continue advancing its nuclear program as we seek to negotiate a long-term, comprehensive solution that addresses all of the international community's concerns."

That last thing, the "long-term, comprehensive solution," that's never going to happen. Here's what will happen: Iran will have a month or two of dedicated adherence to every minute aspect of the agreement. Meanwhile, Chinese, Russian, European and American corporations will be drawn in, to usher an economic boom in Iran that country hasn't seen in at least a decade. The State Dept. talk about $7 or $8 billion in a combination of unfrozen Iranian assets and the removal of sanctions – that's going to be more like $50 billion this summer. It's just the nature of business.

After 2 months of excellent behavior, Iran will start cheating. Small. Mistakes, really, more than cheating, human error. Inspectors would be told at the last minute they can't come in, try again tomorrow. Elements will be moved without notice, on account of how forgetful Iranians can sometimes be…. this was precisely the modus operandi of the Iranian nuclear program under the guidance of Hassan Rouhani.

In 2003, Iran's foreign minister Kamal Kharazi established a nuclear team with Hassan Rouhani in charge, with special powers to formulate a comprehensive plan for Iran's interactions with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Subsequently, negotiations between Iran and three European states. Rouhani and his team based their efforts on dialogue and confidence building. As a result, they prevented further escalation of accusations against Iran, and blocked a report of Iran's nuclear case to the United Nations Security Council. For the purpose of "confidence building," parts of Iran's nuclear activities were voluntarily suspended at several junctures.

In addition to building confidence, insisting on Iran's rights, reducing international pressures and the possibility of war, and preventing Iran's case from being reported to the UN Security Council, Iran succeeded in completing its nuclear fuel cycle and took groundbreaking steps to reach what many considered the point of no return in developing a nuclear weapon.

 Rouhani was successful in cheating the West and giving the Iranian nuclear program breathing room to thrive—even as the GW Bush Administration was preparing for the invasion of neighboring Iraq. Rouhani showed he had nerves of steel then, coupled with a stunning ability to charm his foes silly—he continues to possess the nerves of steel and the winning smile. Kerry and the west don't stand a chance.

By the time the State Dept. is forced to admit, six months down the road, if not earlier, that they made a terrible mistake, Iran will have repaired the major crisis areas in its economy, and would remain as close to making a bomb, if not closer.