► Brookings.edu January  Big Bets and Black Swans: A Presidential Briefing Book, 17, 2013  A Presidential Briefing Book." Take a first look at Big Bets and Black Swan Foreign Policy

Dear Colleague, As President Obama begins his second term in office, he faces a world in turmoil and a number of critical challenges to global security and stability. The Middle East is in a state of political upheaval. Tensions are rising in East Asia. The world's governing institutions are weakened and dysfunctional in the absence of concerted leadership. In response to these and a host of other international crises, the president can choose to place some "Big Bets" that could define his foreign policy over the next four years. However, a number of "Black Swans" — low probability but high-impact events — may derail President Obama's second term foreign policy agenda. Today the experts in Brookings' Foreign Policy program are releasing a set of 20 memos to the president, Big Bets and Black Swans: A Presidential Briefing Book, which both outlines these key issues and offers innovative policy recommendations that the administration might pursue. Because you are a valued member of the Brookings community, I wanted you to be among the first to learn about "Big Bets and Black Swans: A Presidential Briefing Book." Take a first look at Big Bets and Black Swans: www.brookings.edu/bigbetsblackswans Here are just a few of the crucial recommendations our team has put forward for President Obama: In "The New Rules of War," Peter W. Singer and Thomas Wright outline the president's opportunity to develop a new set of global rules to govern the use of the new battlefield and cyber technology.   Suzanne Maloney argues for an aggressive menu of diplomatic actions to curb Iran's nuclear program and stabilize the region in "Turning Tehran."   In "China in Revolution and War," Cheng Li takes a look at two possible and potentially dangerous political developments in China, and how the president can work quickly to avert both. Read about all of these recommendations and more at: www.brookings.edu/bigbetsblackswans We'll be working hard over the coming weeks to ensure that President Obama and his team take these recommendations seriously, and we hope that you find them informative and helpful as well. Sincerely, Martin Indyk P.S. In a few minutes, at 1:00 PM EST this afternoon, we will formally launch the project with an event at Brookings hosted by NBC's David Gregory. We'd love to have you follow along with the live webcast.

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